Down To Earth (01-15 January, 2025)

More about the news

• For decades, Europe has relied heavily on Russian natural gas, with pipelines traversing Ukraine being a critical supply route.
• However, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to a cessation of this vital energy flow.
• Ukraine’s decision not to renew the transit agreement with Russia, which expires at the end of 2024, has effectively cut off a major source of natural gas to Europe.

Impact

• Countries such as Austria, Slovakia and Moldova, which are highly dependent on Russia for energy, fear the disruption of future supply.
• Before the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia supplied about 35% of Europe’s pipeline natural gas exports. This figure has now dwindled to less than 10%.
• Moldova imposed a 60-day emergency in the energy sector over fears of natural gas supply cuts.
• Slovakia has rejected the EU's stance on moving away from Russian piped gas supply, saying it would result in high energy prices.
• The country has declared that it will block any sanctions on Russia related to nuclear energy.
• Nuclear programmes in Slovakia are developed by Russia.

Geopolitical Ramifications

• Ukraine’s move is seen as a strategic effort to weaken Russia financially by cutting off a major revenue stream.
• It aligns with broader European efforts to reduce dependency on Russian energy, a dependency that has been perceived as a tool for political leverage by Moscow.

Economic Consequences

• Russia stands to lose significant revenue from gas exports, which have been a cornerstone of its economy.
• On the other hand, European countries are likely to face higher energy prices and potential shortages, especially during the winter months.
• The transition to alternative energy sources will require substantial investment and time.

Postponement of Deforestation Law By European Parliament

Context

• In a significant move, the European Parliament has voted to postpone the implementation of the European Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) by one year.

Background and Purpose of European Deforestation Regulation (EUDR)

• The EUDR aims to ensure that products sold within the EU are not sourced from deforested land, addressing the urgent issues of climate change and biodiversity loss.
• It imposes supply chain due diligence requirements on operators and traders dealing with products linked to deforestation and forest degradation.

Reasons for Postponement

• The postponement comes in response to concerns from various stakeholders, including EU Member States, non-EU countries, traders, and operators, who indicated difficulties in fully complying with the rules by the original deadline.
• The European Council supported the above.

Proposed Amendments

• A new category of countries deemed to pose ‘no risk’ of deforestation was introduced.
• This category will have less stringent due diligence requirements, focusing mainly on compliance with the legislation of the country of production.
• The European Commission is tasked with finalizing the country benchmarking system by June 30, 2025.

Impact and Future Steps

• Despite the delay, the core substance of the deforestation law remains unchanged.
• The postponement is seen as a necessary step to ensure legal clarity and effective implementation of the regulation.
• Europe continues to lead in global forest protection efforts, with the next significant step being the publication of risk categories by country before June 2025.

Legalising Minimum Support Price (MSP)

Context

• Recently, a Parliamentary Standing Committee recommended implementing a legally-binding MSP in India, as farmers in northern states mounted multiple protests to demand for guaranteed MSP for crops.

About the Minimum Support Price (MSP)

• It has been a cornerstone of India’s agricultural policy, aimed at ensuring farmers receive a fair price for their produce.
• However, the debate over legalising MSP has gained momentum, especially in light of recent farmer protests and economic challenges.

Need for MSP

• Farmers in India face numerous challenges, including rising production costs, soil fertility loss, and insufficient irrigation.
• These factors, combined with market fluctuations and the necessity to sell crops to meet household expenses, often result in farmers receiving prices below their production costs.
• MSP aims to provide a safety net by guaranteeing a minimum price for certain crops, thus protecting farmers from market volatility.

Current MSP Framework

• The Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP) recommends MSPs for 23 commodities, including cereals, pulses, oilseeds, and commercial crops.
• The Union Ministry of Tribal Affairs also provides MSP for 87 minor forest produce.
• However, the current MSP system is not legally binding, meaning there is no legal obligation for the government or private buyers to procure crops at MSP.

Arguments for Legalising MSP

• Farmer Security: Legalising MSP would provide farmers with a guaranteed income, reducing their vulnerability to market fluctuations and ensuring they can cover their production costs.
• Market Stability: A legally binding MSP could help stabilise market prices by setting a floor price, preventing prices from falling below a certain level.
• Rural Economy Boost: Ensuring fair prices for farmers can lead to increased rural incomes, boosting the overall rural economy and reducing poverty.

Challenges and Concerns

• Fiscal Burden: Implementing a legally binding MSP for all crops could impose a significant financial burden on the government.
• Estimates suggest that procuring all MSP-covered crops could require up to ₹7.5 lakh crore annually.
• Market Distortion: A legally binding MSP could distort market dynamics, leading to overproduction of certain crops and underproduction of others, potentially affecting food security.
• Implementation Complexity: Ensuring compliance with a legally binding MSP would require robust monitoring and enforcement mechanisms, which could be challenging to implement.

Alternative Approaches

• Private Sector Involvement: One alternative is to legally obligate private buyers to purchase crops at or above MSP, similar to the current system for sugarcane procurement.
• Direct Compensation: Another approach is to provide direct compensation to farmers if they sell their produce below MSP, reimbursing them for the difference.
• This method could be more costeffective and easier to implement than direct procurement.

Conclusion

• Legalising MSP in India is a complex issue with significant implications for farmers, the economy, and the agricultural sector.
• While it offers potential benefits in terms of farmer security and market stability, it also poses challenges related to fiscal burden and market distortion.
• A balanced approach, involving stakeholder dialogue and exploring alternative mechanisms, is essential to address these challenges and ensure a sustainable and equitable agricultural system.

Electronic Waste in India

Context

• As per data shared by the Union Minister of State for Housing and Urban Affairs in the Rajya Sabha, India's electronic waste surged from 1.01 million tonnes in 2019- 20 to 1.75 million tonnes in 2023-24.

About the Electronic Waste (or e-Waste)

• India is witnessing a rapid surge in electronic waste (e-waste) generation, driven by the increasing use of electronic devices. This rise poses significant environmental and health challenges, necessitating effective management strategies.

Current Scenario

• India’s e-waste generation has surged by 73% over the past five years, reaching 1.75 million metric tonnes in 2023-24.
• The sharpest increase occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, as remote work and learning boosted electronic consumption.
• E-waste contains hazardous materials like heavy metals and persistent organic pollutants, which can harm the environment and human health if not properly managed.

Environmental and Health Impacts

• E-waste contains hazardous substances such as lead, mercury, cadmium, and brominated flame retardants.
• When e-waste is not managed properly, these toxic substances can leach into the soil and water, causing contamination.
• Additionally, informal recycling practices, which are prevalent in India, expose workers to harmful chemicals, leading to serious health issues such as respiratory problems, skin diseases, and even cancer.

Government Initiatives and Regulations

• E-Waste (Management) Rules, 2022: These rules emphasize Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR), requiring producers to meet annual recycling targets based on the quantity of e-waste generated or products sold.
• Producers must purchase EPR certificates from registered recyclers, ensuring proper disposal and recycling of e-waste.
• Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) is a key component of these rules, requiring manufacturers to establish e-waste collection centers and ensure environmentally sound recycling practices.

Role of the Informal Sector

• Informal recyclers often use rudimentary methods to extract valuable materials from e-waste, which can be hazardous.
• Efforts are being made to integrate the informal sector into the formal e-waste management system.
• Training programs and awareness campaigns are being conducted to educate informal workers about safe recycling practices and the importance of environmental protection.

Public Awareness and Participation

• Initiatives such as e-waste collection drives, awareness campaigns, and educational programs are being organized to inform citizens about the importance of proper e-waste disposal.
• Consumers are encouraged to dispose of their electronic devices at authorized collection centers and participate in recycling programs.

Challenges and Solutions

• Despite these efforts, over 95% of India’s e-waste is handled by the informal sector, which lacks the necessary infrastructure and expertise for safe recycling. This informal handling exacerbates environmental and health risks. To address this, there is a need for:
• Strengthening Formal Recycling Infrastructure: Investing in advanced recycling facilities and technologies to handle e-waste safely and efficiently.
• Public Awareness Campaigns: Educating consumers about the hazards of improper e-waste disposal and encouraging responsible recycling practices.
• Incentivizing Formal Sector Participation: Providing incentives for businesses and individuals to engage with formal recycling channels.

Shared Resources and India’s Marginalised Communities

Context

• A landmark 2011 Supreme Court ruling to protect shared resources deepens struggles for India’s marginalised communities.
• While the company claims that the land is for compensatory afforestation, people fear it would result in bauxite mining in the biodiversity-rich region.

About

• Shared resources, or commons, such as water bodies, forests, and grazing lands, play a crucial role in the livelihoods of India’s marginalized communities.
• It involves planting trees on non-forest land or degraded forest land to compensate for the forest area diverted for these activities.
• However, the management and protection of these commons have been fraught with challenges, leading to conflicts and further marginalization of vulnerable groups.

Historical Context

• The concept of commons in India has deep historical roots, with traditional community-based management systems ensuring equitable access and sustainable use.
• However, colonial and post-colonial land policies disrupted these systems, leading to the privatization and commercialization of shared resources.
• This shift has often resulted in the exclusion of marginalized communities, such as Scheduled Castes (SCs), Scheduled Tribes (STs), and landless laborers, from accessing these vital resources.

Legal Framework and Challenges

• A landmark 2011 Supreme Court ruling aimed to protect shared resources and prevent their encroachment.
• The court mandated the eviction of illegal occupants and the restoration of commons, with exceptions for marginalized groups.
• Despite this, implementation has been inconsistent, and many marginalized communities continue to face eviction without adequate rehabilitation.

Case Study: Rohar Jagir Village

• In Rohar Jagir village, Punjab, the 2011 Supreme Court verdict has had limited impact.
• The village pond, a crucial resource, remains encroached upon, and the affected families, primarily from marginalized backgrounds, have not benefited from the ruling.
• This case highlights the systemic inequities and the gap between legal provisions and ground realities.

Impact on Marginalized Communities

• The misinterpretation and selective enforcement of legal protections for commons have disproportionately affected marginalized communities.
• Studies have shown that evictions often occur without prior notice or fair hearings, violating the rights of the affected individuals.
• Furthermore, the lack of regularization policies for indigent persons and SC/ST communities exacerbates their vulnerability.

Way Forward

• To address these challenges, it is essential to strengthen the legal and institutional frameworks governing shared resources.
• This includes ensuring transparent and participatory decision-making processes, providing legal aid to marginalized communities, and implementing comprehensive rehabilitation and compensation schemes.
• Additionally, reviving traditional community-based management systems can promote sustainable and equitable use of commons.

‘Nexus Assessment’ and ‘Transformative Change Assessment’

Context

• Recently, reports ’Nexus Assessment’ and ‘Transformative Change Assessment’ from the Intergovernmental SciencePolicy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) have highlighted the urgent need for a unified approach to tackle the interconnected global crises of biodiversity, water, food, health, and climate change.

About the Nexus Assessment

• It focuses on the interlinkages among biodiversity, water, food, and health. It emphasizes that addressing these issues in isolation can lead to counterproductive outcomes.
• For instance, prioritizing food production without considering its impact on biodiversity and water resources can exacerbate environmental degradation. It recommended:
• Integrated Decision-Making: Moving beyond single-issue silos to manage and govern the interconnected elements effectively.
• Adaptive Governance: Implementing flexible policies that can adapt to changing circumstances and new scientific insights.
• Sustainable Practices: Promoting practices that balance the needs of biodiversity, water, food, and health to achieve long-term sustainability.

Transformative Change Assessment

• It provides actionable solutions to halt biodiversity loss and achieve a sustainable future.
• It underscores the importance of transformative changes in policies, practices, and societal values to meet global biodiversity targets by 2050.

Key Aspects

• Holistic Approaches: Encouraging holistic approaches that consider the broader impacts of actions on biodiversity and ecosystem services.
• Stakeholder Engagement: Involving diverse stakeholders, including indigenous communities, in decision-making processes to ensure inclusive and effective solutions.
• Policy Integration: Integrating biodiversity conservation into broader policy frameworks, such as climate change mitigation and sustainable development goals.

Burden of Poverty

Context

• According to the World Bank, poverty reduction has slowed amid poor economic growth and shocks like the covid-19 pandemic, high inflation, increased conflict and fragility.

About

• Poverty remains one of the most pressing issues globally, affecting millions of lives and hindering sustainable development.
• Despite efforts to alleviate poverty, recent trends indicate a worrying rise in poverty levels, exacerbated by economic shocks, conflicts, and climate change.

Current Trends

• According to the World Bank, as of 2024, approximately 700 million people, or 8.5% of the global population, live in extreme poverty, surviving on less than $2.15 per day.
• It has stagnated due to slow economic growth, the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, and increased fragility in many regions.

Regional Disparities

• Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia are the most affected regions.
• In Sub-Saharan Africa, 67% of the population lives in extreme poverty, a figure that rises to 75% when including all fragile and conflict-affected countries.
• South Asia also saw a significant increase in poverty rates during the pandemic.

Income Inequality in India

• The richest 10% of the population now capture 52% of the national income, while the poorest half receive only 8.5%.
• This disparity has widened over the years, making it increasingly difficult for the poor to escape the cycle of poverty.
• The World Inequality Lab reports that the share of the top 10% in national income surged by 60% in recent years, compared to the 1990s.
• Top 1% earning 23 times the average income in India.

Debt Distress

• More than half of low-income countries are facing debt distress, spending nearly 7.5% of their budgets on external debt servicing.
• This financial strain limits their ability to invest in welfare and development, pushing more people below the poverty line.

Impact of Climate Change

• Climate change is another factor contributing to the burden of poverty in India. Extreme weather events, such as floods and droughts, disproportionately affect the poor, who often lack the resources to recover from such shocks.
• The World Bank highlights that nearly one in five people globally are at risk of experiencing welfare losses due to extreme weather events.

Future Projections

• By 2030, the share of the global population living in extreme poverty is projected to decrease slightly to 7.3%, but in absolute numbers, the count of poor people will likely increase.
• It underscores the need for increased social spending and international cooperation to address the root causes of poverty.

Immigration and Depopulation

Context

• In recent years, the twin phenomena of immigration and depopulation have become central to discussions on global demographics and socio-economic policies.

About

• Immigration and depopulation are two interconnected phenomena that significantly impact global demographics.
• As fertility rates decline and populations age, many countries face the challenge of maintaining their population size and economic vitality.
• Immigration emerges as a crucial factor in addressing these demographic shifts.

Immigration Surge

• According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), there were approximately 281 million international migrants in 2020, a significant increase from previous decades.
• This surge is driven by various factors, including economic opportunities, political instability, and environmental changes.
• Countries like the United States, Germany, and Canada have seen substantial inflows of immigrants, which have contributed to their economic growth and cultural diversity.
• However, this influx has also sparked debates over national identity, resource allocation, and social integration.

Depopulation Trends

• The United Nations’ World Population Prospects 2022 report highlights that 61 countries are projected to experience a population decline of 1% or more between 2022 and 2050.
• It is primarily due to low fertility rates and high emigration levels.
• Countries like Japan, Italy, and Russia are facing significant population declines, leading to challenges such as labor shortages, increased healthcare costs, and economic stagnation.
• These nations are implementing various policies to encourage higher birth rates and attract immigrants to mitigate the effects of depopulation.

Interplay Between Immigration and Depopulation

• High-income countries with declining populations often rely on immigrants to sustain their workforce and support their aging populations.
• For instance, in the period from 2000 to 2020, international migration was a crucial factor in population growth in many developed nations.
• Conversely, low and middle-income countries, which continue to experience natural population growth, are often the source of emigrants seeking better opportunities abroad.
• It creates a complex global landscape where migration patterns are influenced by economic disparities, demographic trends, and geopolitical factors.

Depopulation Trends

• Depopulation is a growing concern in many developed countries.
• The UN projects that by 2050, the population of developed regions will start to decline due to low fertility rates and an aging population.
• Without immigration, these regions would experience a significant reduction in population size, leading to potential economic and social challenges.

Immigration as a Solution

• Immigration can mitigate the effects of depopulation by replenishing the workforce and supporting economic growth.
• For instance, the UN’s medium-variant projection suggests that continued immigration could help stabilize population sizes in developed regions.
• However, managing immigration effectively requires comprehensive policies that address integration, social cohesion, and economic opportunities for immigrants.

Challenges and Opportunities

• Countries must balance the benefits of immigration with the need to maintain social harmony and provide adequate resources for newcomers.
• Effective integration policies are essential to ensure that immigrants contribute positively to their new communities.

Policy Implications

• Countries must balance the need for economic growth and demographic stability with the challenges of social integration and resource management.
• Policies that promote inclusive growth, support family planning, and facilitate the integration of immigrants are essential.
• Moreover, international cooperation is crucial in addressing the root causes of migration, such as conflict, poverty, and climate change. By fostering global partnerships and sharing best practices, nations can create a more equitable and sustainable future.

New Pathogens

Context

• The world faces an increasing threat from new and re-emerging pathogens. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has warned that the next pandemic could strike by 2030 due to emerging zoonotic diseases.

Climate Change and Pathogen Spillover

• Climate change is a significant driver of pathogen spillover from animals to humans. Rising temperatures, deforestation, and habitat destruction are accelerating the spread of diseases.
• For instance, the highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) is just one mutation away from human-tohuman transmission.
• Additionally, vector-borne diseases like dengue and chikungunya are spreading to new regions due to changing climate conditions.

Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR)

• The crisis of AMR is worsening, posing a grave threat to global health.
• The World Health Organization (WHO) has been negotiating the International Treaty on Pandemic Prevention, Preparedness, and Response since 2021, but significant gaps in collaboration and preparedness remain.
• In 2024, the UN approved a political declaration aimed at reducing the estimated 4.95 million human deaths linked to bacterial AMR.

Emerging and Re-emerging Diseases

• The year 2024 saw outbreaks of reemerging and zoonotic diseases such as cholera, M-pox, Marburg, and Oropouche fever.
• In Africa, a more virulent form of M-pox, Clade 1b, spread rapidly, causing up to 50,000 cases and over 1,000 deaths.
• In Latin America, large outbreaks of vector-borne diseases were reported in new areas, with Brazil experiencing over 6 million suspected dengue cases.

New Pathogens in New Territories

• Known pathogens are infecting new species in new places and evolving to acquire newer transmission routes.
• For example, the highly infectious avian influenza strain H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b reached the sub-Antarctic region by the end of 2023, killing penguins for the first time in January 2024.
• Additionally, a new COVID-19 variant, XEC, emerged in 2024, spreading to 27 countries.

Space: New Marketplace

About

• The space industry is undergoing a remarkable transformation, evolving from a domain dominated by government agencies to a vibrant marketplace teeming with commercial opportunities.
• According to a recent report by the World Economic Forum (WEF), the global space economy is projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, up from $630 billion in 2023.
• This shift, often referred to as ‘NewSpace’ is characterized by increased private sector participation, innovative technologies, and a growing array of applications that extend far beyond traditional space exploration.

Our Last Chance

Context

• Recently, it is observed that the 16th of the last 17 months when global average surface air temperatures exceeded the warming limit of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, at 1.62°C above the pre-industrial level.

Evolution With Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Current Landscape of AI

• In 2024, AI advancements were recognized with Nobel Prizes in Physics and Chemistry, highlighting the technology’s scientific significance.

• Investment in AI is projected to reach $200 billion globally by 2025, underscoring its economic importance.
• AI now features in nearly every technology we use, from automated teller machines to food delivery platforms to stock trading algorithms.
• However, AI also poses several concerns. The ability of AI systems to ‘lie’ and ‘deceive’ has raised alarms about fraud, election tampering, and loss of control over AI systems.
• In 2024 alone, over 30 AI-related lawsuits were filed, many concerning the use of copyrighted materials for training AI.
• The United Nations has also warned about the deployment of AI-based weapons in conflicts, prompting the adoption of a global resolution on AI to safeguard human rights.

Treat of the Treaties

UN Environment Assembly

• The 7th session of the UN Environment Assembly (UNEA-7) will take place in December 2025 under the theme ‘Advancing sustainable solutions for a resilient planet’.
• This session will see the finalization of proposals by the Open-ended Working Group, established in 2022, to create a science-policy panel for the environmentally sound management of chemicals and waste.

On the Horizon

India’s Groundwater Recovery

Current State of Groundwater in India

• Groundwater depletion in India is a significant concern. A study published in Down to Earth indicates that the rate of groundwater depletion could triple by 2041-2080 due to climate change.
• This accelerated depletion is driven by increased irrigation demands as temperatures rise, despite potential increases in precipitation.
• The study emphasizes that more than 60% of India’s irrigated agriculture relies on groundwater, making its sustainable management crucial for food and water security.