Cold Peace between India and Pakistan

In News

• In recent years, there is now a certain ‘cold peace’ between India and Pakistan relations.

More about the news:

• India-Pakistan relations have entered an age of minimalism:  
  • There is very little bilateral contact today, even fewer expectations of a bilateral breakthrough.
  • And yet, there is a certain ‘cold peace’ between the traditional rivals — on the Line of Control, inside Kashmir and in the verbal exchanges between the two sides. 
• Relations till now:
  • India-Pakistan relations of the kind we have been used to over several decades now – characterised by intense engagement, high value terror attacks, Indian responses, a breakdown of talks, and eventual resumption of talks; rinse and repeat.

Bilateral Relations between India-Pakistan 

• Attempts for engagement: 
  • India has made a number of attempts to build normal neighbourly relations with  Pakistan.
  • The External Affairs Minister’s (EAM)  also took the initiative to propose a Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue in December 2015. 
• Trade and Commerce:
  • Bilateral rade:
    • 2020-2021:
      • The total bilateral trade between India and Pakistan was USD 329 million in 2020-2021. 
    • 2021-2022:
      • This has gone up to USD 514 million in 2021-2022, as per the ministry of commerce, with Indian exports outnumbering imports from Pakistan.
  • Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status:
    • India had accorded MFN status to Pakistan in 1996. 
    • A Pakistan cabinet decision of November 02, 2011 to reciprocate remains unimplemented
• Humanitarian:
  • In 2017, India suggested to Pakistan to revive the mechanism of the Joint Judicial Committee which looks into humanitarian issues of fishermen and prisoners in each other’s custody.
• Cultural: 
  • The visit to religious shrines between India and Pakistan is governed by the  Bilateral Protocol on Visits to Religious Shrines signed between India and Pakistan in  1974. 
  • Kartarpur Corridor: 
    • Prime Minister of India Shri Narendra Modi inaugurated the Kartarpur Sahib  Corridor in 2019 on the occasion of the 550th birth Anniversary of Guru  Nanak Dev Ji and flagged-off the first group of pilgrims to Gurudwara Kartarpur Sahib.

Major Issues between both the countries 

• India’s relations with Pakistan are the most complex of its ties with its neighbours. 
• Terrorism:
  • Terrorism emanating from territories under Pakistan’s control remains a core  concern in bilateral relations.
  • Pulwama cross-border terror attack: 
    • In a heinous and despicable act of cross  border terror attack on the convey of Indian security forces in Pulwama, Jammu &  Kashmir in 2019, 40 security personnel were martyred
• On J&K:
  • India’s revocation of the special status of J&K:
    • The relations between the two countries have remained strained for years now and took a turn for the worse in August 2019 when India revoked the special status of Jammu and Kashmir.
  • Pakistan’s stand:
    • In 2019, Pakistan announced unilateral measures, including the downgrading of diplomatic relations, suspension of bilateral trade and review of bilateral agreements with India. 
  • India has urged Pakistan to review its unilateral actions in respect of relations with India so that normal channels of diplomatic communications are preserved.
• Pakistan’s ambitions and Demands:
  • It aims to change the status quo in Jammu and Kashmir with a three-pronged strategy: 
    • Violent destabilization of Kashmir while raising human rights concerns in global forums, 
    • Reopening the Kashmir question that India believed was settled after the 1971 war, and 
    • Leveraging global nuclear concerns to force Indian concessions on Kashmir. 

Possible reasons cited for the ‘cold peace’ between the Nations

• Historical legacy:
  • The relationship is the history of missed opportunities, failed attempts at conflict resolution, political inability to resolve conflicts and the lack of political will on either side. 
• Hate & populism:
  • For all the talk about conflict resolution, there is no easy way to resolve their complicated conflicts. 
  • Resolving the bilateral conflict resolution may get harder due to rising populism fuelled by online hate. 
• No conflict resolutions till now:
  • None of the key bilateral conflicts between the countries has been resolved since the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960.
  • So, the traditional logic in India that it should first settle its conflicts with Pakistan and then move on to addressing the bigger challenges may not be applicable.
• Defending Kashmir:
  • There is now a certain confidence in India today that it does not need to talk to Pakistan to ensure peace inside Kashmir.
  • There is growing confidence in India about its capability to defend Kashmir against Pakistani aggression or terror attacks.
• Other geopolitical challenges:
  • Both sides today are preoccupied with other geopolitical challenges — Pakistan with the Taliban-led Afghanistan, and India with an aggressive China on its borders.

Way Ahead

• The frequent acknowledgement by both countries that they have much to gain from trade and connectivity in economic areas has taken a back seat to revival of tensions, the shadow of unresolved disputes and geopolitical considerations by both sides.
• Although issues between Pakistan and India are long-standing, progress is possible. 
• Leaders on both sides of the border need to develop a national consensus in support of the peace process and bring all stakeholders including the core constituencies, media and opposition parties on board.

Source: TH