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Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China has released its seventh population census which shows a slowing population growth rate.
Major Findings
- China’s population was 1.41 billion in 2020, increasing by 72 million since the last census in 2010, recording a 5.38 per cent growth with an average annual growth of 0.53 per cent.
- Factors Responsible
- China’s stringent family planning rules under its One-child Policy, implemented in 1979.
- The One-child policy was adopted out of the “Malthusian Fears” and was a response to food shortages concerns.
- Thomas Robert Malthus was the first economist to propose a systematic theory of population.
- He argued that if left unchecked, a population will outgrow its resources, leading to a host of problems and economic and environmental catastrophe.
- The One-child policy was adopted out of the “Malthusian Fears” and was a response to food shortages concerns.
- A range of varying restrictions across urban and rural areas.
- China’s stringent family planning rules under its One-child Policy, implemented in 1979.
- Concerns
- A looming period of population decline.
- Growing ageing and a dependent population.
- Fear of China “getting too old before getting rich”.
- Impact on China’s labour force and healthcare.
- Deteriorating demographic structure.
- China loosened family planning rules and allowed couples to have two children in 2016.
- However, it has failed to mark a boom amid changing lifestyles and declining preferences for larger families.
- Experts held that the Chinese population could peak by 2025 and have suggested paying attention to changes in population growth and responding actively to risks and challenges in demographic development.
- According to a Chinese demographer, India has maintained a fertility rate of around 2.3, which indicates that its population may surpass China’s by 2023 or 2024.
China Versus India Population
- China and India are the two largest countries in terms of population size.
- In 2020, India’s population was estimated by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs at 1.38 billion, or 1.5 per cent behind China.
- China’s population has been larger than India for over 300 years, but this could change as early as 2026, according to the World Economic Forum (WEF).
- India’s population is predicted to reach over 1.6 billion around 2060.
- In 1800, India’s population was at a modest 169 million and the Chinese population was nearly double that with 322 million.
- It was not until 1950 that the total populations of both countries started growing up exponentially. China reached the 1 billion milestones in 1980 whereas India got there in 1997.
- Now, India is on target to overtake China’s total population in 2026, when both countries are expected to be at the 1.46 billion people mark.
- Although the populations of both countries will begin contracting in the mid-21st century, India is expected to stay atop the global population leaderboard even by more moderate estimates.
- In China, growth has been underscored by the One-child policy and it is anticipated that over one-third of Chinese citizens will be 65 years old and above by 2050.
- Meanwhile in India, the workforce is just beginning to take off as 65 per cent of its population is currently aged 35 years and below.
- High rates of digital adoption are further compounding economic growth in the country, especially as the world becomes increasingly reliant on telecom and IT services.
- However, in the economic aspects, India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will not surpass China’s in the next several decades.
- As per WEF, both will still see immense GDP gains and be among largest economies in the world by 2050, led by China and then India.
(Images Courtesy: WEF)
Source: TH
