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Recently, ‘Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2021:Towards post-Covid-19 resilient economies’ report was released by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP).
Key Findings of the report
- The report forecasts that on average, developing Asia-Pacific economies are expected to grow 5.9 per cent in 2021 and 5 per cent in 2022, after having experienced an estimated contraction of 1 per cent in 2020.
- The prospect of a K-shaped recovery, characterized by uneven post-pandemic recovery across countries and widened inequality gaps within countries, is highlighted as a primary policy challenge.
Image Courtesy: UNESCAP
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K-shaped recovery
Image Courtesy: CNET |
- China’s swift and effective response to Covid enabled it to become the only major economy worldwide to achieve a positive annual economic growth rate in 2020.
- India is estimated to record economic growth of 7 per cent in 2021-22, over a contraction of 7.7 per cent witnessed in the previous fiscal on account of the pandemic’s impact on normal business activity.
- In its second advance estimates of national accounts, the National Statistical Office (NSO) has projected an 8 percent contraction in 2020-21, showing the impact of the pandemic.
- India’s economic output in 2021 is expected to remain below the 2019 level.
- A subsequent change in lockdown policies and success in reducing infection rates supported an impressive economic turnaround in the later months of 2020.
- Challenges: Maintaining low borrowing costs while keeping non-performing loans in check would be a challenge.
Image Courtesy: UNESCAP
- Suggestions: For a more robust and inclusive recovery, the report calls for a more synchronised Covid vaccination programme across countries and highlights opportunities to leverage regional cooperation.
- At the same time, it recommends that fiscal and monetary support should be sustained, as premature tightening could increase long-term scars.
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About the Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific report
United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP)
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