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Three-child policy of China

Posted on August 21, 2021 by admin1  23

In News

Recently, China’s legislature formally amended the country’s Population and Family Planning Law to allow couples to have 3 children.

About

  • Now, Couples in China, would for the first time be allowed to have a third child in relaxation of family planning rules.
  • China also announced a number of policy measures aimed at boosting declining birth rates.
  • Chinese officials claim the one-child policy implemented for over 3 decades has prevented over 400 million births.

 

Background

  • In 2016, a “two-child policy” was introduced that largely failed to boost birth rates.
    • The prime reason quoted was the high education cost of children.
  • Hence, the amended law calls on the authorities to “take supportive measures” like those in finances, taxes, insurance, education, housing and employment.
    • China’s regulators in recent weeks have taken drastic measures to reduce education costs.
    • They are trying to overhaul the booming private education industry, which may be ordered to go non-profit.
    • It will reduce families’ burdens as well as the cost of raising and educating children.

Need for such regulation

  • The Chinese Decennial Census reported rapidly declining birth rates over the past decade. 
    • The National Bureau of Statistics said on May 11 that 12 million babies were born last year, the lowest number since 1961.
  • 60+ Age Group saw significant Population rise:
    • The census said China’s population was 1.41 billion in 2020, an increase of 72 million since the last census in 2010.
    • The census recorded 264 million in the age group of 60 and over, up 5.44% since 2010 and accounting for 18.70% of the population. 
  • Declining Working Age Population:
    • Those in the 15-59 age group were 894 million persons, down by 6.79% since 2010 and accounting for 63.35% of the population. 
    • China’s workforce in the 15-59 age bracket peaked at 925 million in 2011
    • That number was down to 894 million in this census and would drop to 700 million by 2050.
  • The ageing crisis “might be the biggest challenge the Chinese nation faces in the next century.”
    • It will increase the social security spendings of the government.
    • Productivity will go down and demand for higher wages may go up.
    • This may hamper the Chinese model of economic growth based on Cheap Exports.

Indian Case regarding population Control

 

  • Current Status:
    • Presently, India’s population stands at nearly 134 crores.
    •  As per the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs estimates, India’s population will hit 1.5 billion by 2030 and 1.64 billion by 2050. 
    • This would make India become the most populous country, overtaking China.
  • India for long has been trying to implement a two-child policy.

 

Need for population Control in India

  • Big-Push Theory 
    • Harvard economist Harvey Leibenstein has demonstrated how population growth tends to erode incomes.
    • It clearly explains how poverty is a big hurdle in population control and vice versa.
  • Malthusian Theory 
    • Although it failed, yet it partially justifies the hunger menace and inefficiencies in the PDS of India.

 

Past Experience

  • Recently UP Population Uttar Pradesh Population (Control, Stabilisation, and Welfare) Bill, 2021 created a stir with the following provisions..
    • Any citizen who “violates” a two-child policy would be barred from:
      • contesting local bodies polls,
      • applying for, or getting promotion in, government jobs, and
      • even receiving government subsidies.
  • The Supreme Court also upheld a Haryana government law barring persons with more than two children from contesting local body polls.
  • Role of poverty reduction schemes and economic reforms 
    • Poverty reduction measures and economic reforms have raised labour productivity and employment opportunities.
    • They allowed families to empower women and reduced fertility rates as rational choices.
  • Coercive v/s Conditional and Awareness Approach:
    • India, during the 5th Five-year plan, announced the National Population Policy which also had provision of forced sterilisation.
    • It was highly resisted and failed at the end.
    • Since then, the government has adhered to poverty alleviation programs along with awareness creation.
    • These have been quite successful by reducing the Total Fertility Rate, very near to the replacement rate of 2.1.

 

Challenges in Indian Population Control

 

  • North-South Divide:
    • The Southern States have successfully implemented Population Control Schemes much earlier than the Northern States.
    • Now they are feeling that their share of seats in Parliament is getting reduced.
  • Religious Polarisation
    • There are communal tensions over the population issue as evident from media discussions after the UP Population Control Bill.
  • Distributional Aspects of Population 
    • As per Keynes, poor demand for investment may onset an economic recession in places of falling or ageing population of consumers.
  • Patriarchy
    • There is a very high Son preference.
    • The case study of unwanted girls being named Nakusa is itself a testimony of such unruly behaviour.
    • It has lead to a highly skewed sex ratio in few states.

 

Way Ahead

 

  • Adherence to Cairo International Conference on Population and Development in 1994
    • The Cairo Consensus called for 
      • the promotion of reproductive rights, 
      • empowering women, 
      • universal education, 
      • maternal and infant health to untangle the knotty issue of poverty and high fertility. 
    • The consensus also demands an increase in the rate of modern contraceptive prevalence, male contraception. 
    • States instead of releasing population control measures can start to adhere to implementing the Cairo consensus.
  • Focussing on Women 
    • Population stabilisation is not only about controlling population growth, but also entails gender parity.
    • So, states need to incentivize later marriages and childbirth, promoting women’s labour force participation, etc.
    • Further educated and empowered women have been found to have lower TFR.
  • The population as a Resource rather than Burden:
    • Economic Survey, 2018-19 has highlighted a sharp slowdown in population growth in the next 20 years with a generational North-South Divide in India.
    • So instead of population control policies at the state level, India needs a universal policy to utilize population in a better way.

 

What is the Total Fertility Rate (TFR)?

  • It is also known as the fertility rate of a population.
  • TFR is the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if:
    • She was to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) throughout her lifetime.
    • She was to live from birth until the end of her reproductive life.
  • The replacement level TFR is 2.1.
    • It means the population will neither grow nor decline.

Source: TH

 
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