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Recently, the US, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan agreed to form a quad group to enhance regional connectivity.
Background
- The parties considered long-term peace and stability in Afghanistan critical to regional connectivity and agreed that peace and regional connectivity are mutually reinforcing.
- This development comes as the security situation in Afghanistan has been deteriorating following the withdrawal of US military forces from the country.
- The drawdown is set to be complete by the end of August.
The New Quad
- The new US-Pakistan-Afghanistan-Uzbekistan framework is the embodiment of Pakistan’s multi-alignment policy of balancing between Great Powers.
- It complements the 2016 Quadrilateral Cooperation & Coordination Mechanism (QCCM) with itself, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and China, as well as its recent outreaches to Russia.
Various Interests
- The US wants to use the Pakistan-Afghanistan-Uzbekistan (PAKAFUZ) railway that was agreed to in February to expand its economic influence into post-withdrawal Afghanistan and the Central Asian Republics (CARs).
- While Russia wants to use it to attain its centuries-long strategic goal of reaching the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).
- Beijing is also naturally in support of PAKAFUZ since it essentially functions as the northern branch of CPEC (N-CPEC).
- Meanwhile, a recent virtual Foreign Ministers meeting between the top Chinese, Pakistani, and Afghan diplomats saw Kabul agreeing to rely more on Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and in particular CPEC’s Gwadar.
- Through these means, Pakistan is making good on its new grand strategy of geo-economics with its political, diplomatic, and military leadership.
- Instead of pursuing zero-sum geopolitical gains, Pakistan wants to advance win-win geo-economic ones that bring together all stakeholders.
Implications for India
- Better version: It shows that Pakistan’s version of geo-economically driven multi-alignment is much more successful even in its first few months than India’s geopolitically driven version has been over the past decade.
- US will become a stakeholder of Pakistan: It makes the US a stakeholder in Pakistan’s stability, which could lead to America putting pressure on India not to destabilize its rival by proxy like Islamabad accuses it of doing despite India consistently denying this.
- US’ Regional economic focus to shift from India to Pak:
- The US and India failed to reach a comprehensive trade pact despite years of negotiations, yet now the US is signaling that it might prefer Pakistan as its base of regional economic investments instead due to PAKAFUZ’s access to the CARs.
- Earlier, the US and Pakistan leaders decided to drastically scale up bilateral economic relations. It appears as though the new US President is serious about following up on this important element of his predecessor’s policy.
- Key to peace in Afghanistan is Pakistan: America is interested in repairing its relations with Pakistan because Islamabad is the key to peace in Afghanistan. It also provides access to the CARs via PAKAFUZ.
Chinese Angle
- Pakistan:
- The US wants to balance Chinese investments there in order to prevent Pakistan from falling too closely into Beijing’s orbit.
- Pakistan, meanwhile, wants the US and China to engage in a friendly form of “competitive connectivity” which will only bring tangible economic benefits to its own people without any of the risks that India’s US-backed zero-sum military competition with China entail.
- India:
- By contrast, the only real interest that the US has in India is to exploit it as a proxy for “containing” China through zero-sum military means.
- This places India at serious risk if US-encouraged tensions with China once again soar but America abandons it as part of a “backroom deal” with Beijing.
Way Ahead for India
- Replicate the Geo economic plan, of Pakistan, with Russia:
- Faced with this growing strategic predicament, India should seriously consider recalibrating its multi-alignment away from its former and arguably failed geopolitical basis and more towards replicating the geo-economic example set by Pakistan.
- Enhance economic relations with Russia:
- That’s already a plan in progress as the two cooperate on the Vladivostok-Chennai Maritime Corridor (VCMC) and North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC).
- India must also make progress on reaching a trade deal with the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).
- Moreover, India should give privileged incentives to Russian investors in order to diversify economic ties away from their present dependence on arms and natural resources.
- Responsibly manage relations with China:
- At the same time, India should also more responsibly manage its relations with China by not allowing itself to continue being influenced by the US, which it certainly can’t trust any longer after America just clinched this quadrilateral economic-political pact with Pakistan.
- Third party ties should include only the trusted partner Russia: If any third party is to influence Indian-Chinese ties, it must only be their mutual trusted Russian one which solely wants peace and stability between them, not rivalry and war like the US does.
- Balance relations with US as well:
- That doesn’t mean that India should move away from the US, but just that it must take the prescribed steps in order to improve its strategic negotiating leverage so as not to be exploited by America as that country’s proxy against China at the possible expense of its own national interests.
Sources: TH
