Context:
The Israel-Gaza conflict, hostilities between Iran and Israel, and ongoing attacks involving Iran-backed militias from Lebanon and Yemen are exacerbating tensions in the West Asia region.
1. Which countries comprise the West Asia region?
- West Asia is a subregion of Asia that is bordered by Europe to the west, Central Asia to the north, South Asia to the east, and Africa and the Arabian sea to the south.
- The region of West Asia roughly includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Cyprus, Georgia, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Iran, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
2. What is the history of India’s relation with West Asia?
Ancient phase:
- The ‘West Asia’ has remained an area of high priority for India due to historical, political, cultural, geographical and economic reasons.
- India and West Asia have great civilization contacts in history, as Indus Valley civilization and Mesopotamia civilization and the Nile Delta civilization in Egypt were not strangers to each other at that time.
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- The Indus Valley civilization had trade links with Dilmun (modern Bahrain).
- In the 6th century BCE, Punjab was part of the Persian empire.
- In the 3rd century BCE, Egypt’s Ptolemy II and the Mauryan emperors Chandragupta Maurya and Asoka exchanged ambassadors.
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- Farsi was the language of the Mughal court, and India’s official language until 1835. This connection still continues.
Pre Independence phase:
- In the pre-independence phase, India and the countries of West Asia had also shown some common understanding on the issue of nationalist moments.
- Congress of Oppressed Nationalities in ‘Brussels Conference (1927)’ and Nehru’s idea of ‘Pan-Asiatic Federation (1930)’ had brought India and these countries in close contact.
- Besides, delegations from Tunisia, Egypt and Palestine attended the annual Congress sessions throughout the 1930s and later.
- The Indian National Congress coordinated with fellow Nationalist organizations in Egypt, Iraq, Turkey, Lebanon and Syria and lent them a helping hand.
- All these initiatives reflected the historically close ties between India and West Asia.
3. What is the timeline of the Israel-Gaza conflict?
4. What is the timeline of the Israel-Iran conflict?
5. What are the factors behind the West Asia crisis?
| Reasons |
Analysis |
| External Conflict: |
- Oil and gas — energy security issues.
- Intervention by the US and other powers.
- Ex- US invasion to iran.
- Qasem Soleimani, an Iranian major general, was killed by an American drone strike
- Nuclear arms proliferation e.g. Iran.
- Economic issues: Sanctions on Iran.
- The US walked out of Iran Nuclear Deal viz., Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
- Then it imposed constant pressure of sanctions on Iran to make it economically weak.
- The US and allies vs. increasing Chinese influence and Russian interests, especially in adjacent Central Asia.
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| Internal Conflict: |
- Power struggles within the nation-states — ‘intra-state’.
- Monarchy vs. religious leaders (Saudi Arabia).
- Rulers vs. the people (Iran).
- Sheikhly families vs. the urban educated youth (UAe, Kuwait).
- Sunni vs. Shia (Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia)
- The Kurdish claims for an independent state in Northern Iraq.
- Reformism vs. religious extremism (Iran, Saudi Arabia).
- Power struggles between nation-states — ‘inter- state’
- Arab vs. Jew (Israel vs. Syria+Iran+Saudi Arabia).
- Sunni Arab vs. Shia (predominantly from Iran/Iraq).
- Various unresolved boundary disputes.
- Water and food security (entire Levant, Iraq, turkey, Saudi Arabia).
- Issues pertaining to sharing of water resources, ownership of oil wells, etc. (Syria, Iraq, Turkey).
- Support to non-state actors by other regional states (Iran-Hezbollah, Saudi Arabia-Hamas, Iran-Hamas).
- Large number of refugees/internally displaced persons (Arabs, Jews, Palestinians, Afghans).
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| The rise of non-state actors |
- Palestinian/Lebanese groups — Hamas, Hezbollah.
- Support to Hamas operations by Hezbollah ,Iran and Qatar.
- Al Qaeda, Taliban, Muslim Brotherhood, Mahdi Army.
- ISIS in Syria
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| Rising Military Expenditure. |
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| Death of Iran President |
- Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian died in a helicopter crash May 19.
- His death comes at a time of turmoil in West Asia, centered on Israel's war against Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza.
- This could further aggravate the ongoing crisis.
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6. What is the timeline of India-Israel relationship?
7. What is the Significance of West Asia for India?
| Importance |
Analysis |
| Energy Security |
- West Asia accounted for over 60% of India’s crude oil imports and over 85 per cent of India’s LNG requirements.
|
| Diaspora |
- There are around 8 to 9 million Indians in West Asia.
- There are about 18,000 Indians in Israel and about 5,000-10,000 Indians in Iran.
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| Cultural ties |
- India has a long history of cultural exchange with West Asian countries.
- India has also established cultural centers in several countries in the region.
|
| Remittances |
- According to a UN report on international migration, in 2017, inward remittances from the Gulf into India were 38 billion U.S. dollars.
- Considering that total inward remittances into India in 2016 were 62.7 billion U.S. dollars, 3 percent of India’s GDP, the impact of Gulf remittances on the Indian economy is significant.
|
| Trade and Investment |
- India has invested in a strategic relationship with major Arab countries, Iran, and Israel.
- According to the UN Comtrade database, Iran and the GCC member states accounted for a 15.3% share of India’s cumulative two-way merchandise trade from 2017 through 2021.
- Chabahar in Iran is another strategic economic project, which acts as a gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia — since Pakistan denies land transit to Indian goods.
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| Investment |
- India has emerged as a key beneficiary of private investment from the Middle East in the last three years as diplomatic pacts facilitated deals and investors sought to tap into the South Asian country's growing market potential.
- India accounted for more than half of all Asia deals with Middle East investors and 58% of the capital invested in Asia during the period, outpacing China and Southeast Asia.
- Diplomatic and trade agreements between the two regions, such as the UAE-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the expansion of BRICS, paved the way for private capital partnerships
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| Defence Relations |
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| India-Middle East-Europe Corridor |
- The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor is a planned economic corridor that aims to bolster economic development by fostering connectivity and economic integration between Asia, the Persian Gulf and Europe.
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| Gateway to Central Asia: |
- West Asia has the potential to serve as the gateway to landlocked Central Asia.
- Example: Chabahar port development by India in Iran.
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8. What are the challenges faced by India due to the West Asia crisis?
| Challenges |
Implications |
| Rising Energy Insecurity |
- The rising geopolitical tension and the extended output cuts by the OPEC+ alliance of producer countries had already pushed global crude oil prices above $90 a barrel – reaching their highest level since October 2023.
- India is the world's third-largest consumer and importer of oil.
- More than 60% of India's oil comes from West Asia.
|
| Concern of Indian Diaspora |
- As per the External Affairs Ministry,2022-Of the estimated 1.34 crore Non-Resident Indians, more than 66 per cent are in the Gulf countries of UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain.
- Indians residing in such numbers will be impacted by the growing tensions in west asia.
- India need to carry out evacuation of its citizens,ex
- Operation Ajay was launched by the Indian Armed Forces to evacuate Indian citizens from Israel during the 2023 Israel–Hamas war.
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| Remittances |
- There are also around 9 million Indian workers in West Asia, the vast majority of them in GCC countries.
- In fact, annual remittances from Indian workers in West Asia accounted for about 16% of India’s total foreign exchange reserves.
- The West Asian crisis could lead to a drastic fall in remittance.
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| Inflation in India |
- India is heavily dependent on West Asia for imported oil and gas.
- Any prolonged conflict in the Middle East will impact oil and gas production.
- Rising oil prices pose inflation risks for India, with a $10/barrel hike potentially increasing consumer prices by 0.2-1.4%.
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| Disruption of Trade |
- Repeated attacks on vessels in the Red Sea have disrupted, though not halted, oil supply flows.
- CRISIL Report suggested that container shipping freight rates globally are now 2.5-3.0 times higher than in early December 2023.
- Around 80% of India’s external trade (50% exports and 30% imports) passes through key waterways in the region such as the Red Sea
- As for the fertilizers, the high impact is seen in terms of extended shipment timelines by nearly 15 days and hiked freight costs, as India is heavily reliant on the Middle East for fertilizers, especially on Israel and Jordan.
- Disruptions in major shipping routes (like the Red Sea) and oil supply can have global economic repercussions.
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| Impact on Economy |
- An escalation of the conflict in West Asia can push up oil prices, which can have a detrimental effect on our twin deficits (fiscal deficit and current account deficit) and inflation.
- Higher oil and gas prices will also have an impact on overall input costs and impact fertilizer prices, pushing up the government's subsidy bill.
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| Impacts India’s Geopolitical balance in the West Asia Policy |
- India is trying to balance its relation with both Arabs and Israel,but current conflict puts India in a diplomatic tightspot to choose one side.
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| Impact to India’s future growth plans |
- Projects like Chabahar port and The India- Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor are less likely to materialize due to the ongoing West Asia crisis.
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9. What could be the possible way ahead for India?
| Way Ahead |
Analysis |
| Diversify Energy dependence |
- India should diversify its sources of oil import.
- Ex- Africa,Russia.
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| Mediating Role |
- India as Brand Ambassador of Peace should try to ensure Peace and Stability in the region.
- India should play a proactive role in mediation for long-term gains.
- India’s position that there should be “immediate de-escalation” and “step back from violence” and “return to the path of diplomacy” is, therefore, crucial to its national interest.
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| Maintaining a Balanced Stand |
- India’s stakes in the bilateral relationships with both Israel and Iran are huge, India will hope that Israel will avoid new military actions that will trigger a dangerous and wider war in the region.
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| Non- Ideological Engagement |
- The non-ideological engagement with the region is a necessary complement to India’s expanding interests in the Middle East.
- India’s interests in the region are no longer limited to oil imports and labour exports.
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| Increase Employment opportunities |
- India should work on increasing employment opportunities in order to minimize migration to Gulf countries.
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10. What should be the possible way ahead for West Asia?
| Way Forward |
Analysis |
| Adoption of the Arab Peace Initiative offer. |
- At the Beirut Arab League Summit in 2002, 22 states unanimously adopted the Arab Peace Initiative – a historic document that offered a formula for ending not only the Palestinian- Israeli conflict, but also the wider, lingering Arab–Israeli conflict, and to achieve a collective peace, security for all and normal relations with Israel.
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| United Nations Role |
- The United Nations and particularly UNSC must make efforts to bring peace in the region.
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| Role of Global super power. |
- Global superpowers like USA, RUSSIA, CHINA, EU, rather than fueling the tensions, should play decisive roles in brokering a peace talk between the two warring factions.
|
| Resort to Two- State Solution |
- The two-state solution to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict proposes to resolve the conflict by establishing two nation states in former Mandatory Palestine.
- The implementation of a two-state solution would involve the establishment of an independent State of Palestine alongside the State of Israel.
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11. What is the relevance of the topic for UPSC CSE?
- For Prelims: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Iran, Israel, Middle East,1979 Islamic Revolution, Stuxnet, Gaza Strip, Red Sea Crisis, Israeli air defense system, Two State Solution, Gulf Cooperation Council, European Union, United Nations, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)
- For Mains: Impact of recent conflict in West Asia in other regions of the world.
Some previous years prelims questions.
Q1. Which one of the following countries of South-West Asia does not open out to the Mediterranean Sea? (2015)
(a) Syria
(b) Jordan
(c) Lebanon
(d) Israel
Ans: (b)
Q2. The term “two-state solution” is sometimes mentioned in the news in the context of the affairs of (2018)
(a) China
(b) Israel
(c) Iraq
(d) Yemen
Ans: (b)
Some previous years mains questions.
Q1. “India’s relations with Israel have, of late, acquired a depth and diversity, which cannot be rolled back.” Discuss. (2018)
Some questions from this year and previous years interview transcripts.
Board Sanjay Verma sir (2024)
- How is the climate changing in the Middle East?
- What steps are being taken in the Middle East to mitigate the impact of climate change?
- Are we going for mitigation or adaptation?
- What steps are involved in adaptation to climate change?
- In the context of the Middle East, how has the scenario changed post World War 1?
- In the present scenario what is the solution to the crisis in the Middle East?
- Give an overview of the Israel Iran conflict. Its implications?
Board Bidyut Bihari Swain sir (2024):
- After world war 2, there has been no such war but in recent times some war situations in the world. Can you list it out?
- What is the situation in the Israel-Hamas conflict and impact on India?
- What is India's stand in it?
- Which countries have suspended aid to Palestine and why?
- Tell about Houthi attacks and its impact on India.
Board Suman Sharma mam(2024):
- Iran bombed Pakistan. Why?
Some questions for QUIZ.
Q1. Consider the following countries
1. Syria
2. Egypt
3. Lebanon
4. Iran
5. Jordan
How many of the above countries share a land border with Israel? Select the correct answer using the code given below:
(a) Only two
(b) Only three
(c) Only four
(d) All five
Ans: (c)
Q2. Consider the following countries
1. Azerbaijan
2. Armenia
3. Turkmenistan
4. Tajikistan
5. Qatar
How many of the above countries share a land border with Iran? Select the correct answer using the code given below:
(a) Only two
(b) Only three
(c) Only four
(d) All five
Ans: (b)
Some questions for POLL.
Q1. Has UN failed in restoring peace in West Asia ?
(a) YES
(b) NO
(c) Can’t say.
Q2. Can India play a crucial role in bringing peace in West Asia?
(a) YES
(b) NO
(c) Can’t say.
1. What is Israel-Palestine Conflict?
1.1 Historical Timeline of Israel-Palestine Dispute
1.2 Current Situation of Israel-Palestine territories
2. What are the reasons for the Israel-Palestine Dispute? What is the history of Iran-Israel Conflict?
3. What are the Global Ramifications of the Conflict?
4. What are India’s stake in the region which will be ndangered by the recently escalating Iran-Israel Conflict?
5. What has been India’s position on the Israel-Palestine Conflict?
6. What diplomatic and political efforts can help India protect its geopolitical interests?
7. What will be the impact of the Israel-Palestine Conflict on India?
8. What is the importance of Iran and Israel for India?
9. What should be the way forward?
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