The TRUMP DOCTRINE: Gain or Loss for India?

Trump

Context:

  • Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th president of the United States on January 20, 2025 ushering in a new term with sweeping promises to reshape the nation.

1.

What is the America First Policy?

America First Policy
  • US President Donald Trump has "America First" as his priorities and this includes making America safe again, making the country affordable, achieving energy dominance, draining the swamp and bringing back American values
  • America First refers to a populist political theory in the United States that emphasizes the fundamental notion of "putting America first", which generally involves disregarding global affairs and focusing solely on domestic policy in the United States.
  • This generally denotes policies of non-interventionism, American nationalism, and protectionist trade policy.
  • The term was coined by President Woodrow Wilson in his 1916 campaign that pledged to keep America neutral in World War I.
  • Decades later, Donald Trump used the slogan in his 2016 presidential campaign and presidency (2017–2021), emphasizing the U.S.'s withdrawal from international treaties and organizations in the administration's foreign policy.
  • In 2017, the administration proposed a federal budget for 2018 with both "Make America Great Again" and "America First" in its title, with the latter referencing its increases to military, homeland security, and veteran spending, cuts to spending that goes towards foreign countries, and 10-year objective of achieving a balanced budget

2.

Enlist the key policies of Trump 2.0?

  • Donald Trump has returned to the White House, having promised action on issues including immigration, the economy and the war in Ukraine.
  • He looks likely to enjoy plenty of support for his political agenda in Congress after his Republican Party regained control of the Senate.
Key policies Analysis
Deport undocumented migrants
  • While campaigning, Trump promised the biggest mass deportations of undocumented migrants in US history.
  • He also pledged to complete the building of a wall at the border with Mexico that was started during his first presidency.
  • The number of crossings at the US southern border hit record levels at the end of last year during the Biden-Harris administration, before falling in 2024.
  • Experts have told the BBC that deportations on the scale promised by Trump would face huge legal and logistical challenges - and could slow economic growth.
migrant encounters rise at southern us border
Moves on economy, tax and tariffs
  • Trump has promised to "end inflation" - which rose to high levels under President Joe Biden before falling again.
  • But a president's power to directly influence prices is limited.
  • He has also promised sweeping tax cuts, extending his overhaul from 2017.
  • He has proposed making tips tax-free, abolishing tax on social security payments and shaving corporation tax.
  • He has proposed new tariffs of at least 10% on most foreign goods, to cut the trade deficit.
  • Imports from China could bear an additional 60% tariff, he has said. Some economists have warned that such moves could push up prices for ordinary people.
trump proposed tariffs
Cut climate regulations
  • During his first presidency, Trump rolled back hundreds of environmental protections and made America the first nation to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement.
  • The Climate Deregulation Tracker, run by the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, has documented more than 130 steps the Trump administration has taken to scale back measures to fight climate change.
  • This time, he has again vowed to cut regulations, particularly as a way to help the American car industry.
  • He has constantly attacked electric vehicles, promising to overturn Biden's targets encouraging the switch to cleaner cars.
  • He has pledged to increase production of US fossil fuels - vowing to "drill, drill, drill" on day one in favour of renewable energy sources such as wind power.
  • He wants to open areas such as the Arctic wilderness to oil drilling, which he argues would lower energy costs.
Cut climate regulations
No abortion ban
  • Against the wishes of some of his supporters, Trump said during the presidential debate with Kamala Harris that he would not sign into law a national abortion ban.
  • In 2022, the nationwide constitutional right to abortion was overturned by the Supreme Court, which had a majority of conservative judges following Trump's first presidency.
  • Reproductive rights became a key campaigning topic for Harris, and several states approved measures to protect or expand abortion rights on polling day.
  • Trump himself has regularly said states should be free to decide their own laws on abortion, but struggled to find a consistent message of his own.
Pardon some Jan 6 rioters
  • Trump has said he will "free" some of those convicted of offences during the riot in Washington DC on 6 January 2021, when his supporters stormed the Capitol building in an effort to thwart the 2020 election victory of Joe Biden.
Pardon some Jan 6 rioters
  • Several deaths were blamed on the violence, which Trump was accused of inciting.
  • He has worked to downplay the riot's significance and recast the hundreds of supporters who were convicted as political prisoners.
  • He continues to say many of them are "wrongfully imprisoned", though has acknowledged that "a couple of them, probably they got out of control".

3.

What do Americans expect From the Trump 2.0?

  • Gallup conducted a survey on what Americans think the Trump administration will accomplish over the next four years.
  • It found that nearly seven in ten respondents (68 percent) said that the incoming administration will control immigration.
what america expect from the new trump era
16 percent of republicans worry about trump extremist ties

4.

What does the U.S. import from Mexico, Canada and China?

  • Tariffs on the U.S.' neighbors would mean Trump would end the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement on free trade that his administration negotiated and that he himself signed in 2018 as a successor to the North American Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA for short.
what does the us import from mexico-canada-and china

5.

How does Trump 2.0 impact Global Politics?

  • Donald Trump has been sworn in as the 47th President of the United States.
  • His second term’s anticipated policies are already impacting global diplomacy and economic dynamics.
Dimensions Analysis
Israel-Hamas war
  • Before resuming office, Trump facilitated a breakthrough in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
  • Steve Witkoff, a New York real estate developer and investor, was reportedly instrumental in delivering the message to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Trump wanted the deal in place by the time he takes office.
team biden thanks trump after israel hamas hostage deal
  • He pressured Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire in Gaza, a deal previously delayed during Joe Biden’s presidency.
  • Trump also leveraged influence over Hamas and other groups, marking a key achievement in the region.
Ukraine-Russia conflict
  • In Ukraine, Trump’s return signals a push for peace talks.
  • His administration aims to negotiate an end to the war with a proposed 100-day target.
  • However, Ukraine’s President Zelensky, under pressure due to ongoing territorial losses, may face demands for concessions that favor Russia.
  • The outcome of Trump’s strategy remains uncertain as Russia maintains control of significant Ukrainian territories.
who control what in ukraine
Canada
  • Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian goods intensified political challenges in Ottawa.
  • Former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s resignation highlighted disagreements over handling Trump‟s threats.
Trump proposed 25percentage tariffs on Canadian goods
  • Subsequently, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stepped down amidst dwindling party support, signaling major political shifts in Canada.
China
  • China’s economic growth in 2024, though meeting government targets, reflects challenges from internal and external pressures.
  • The lingering property crisis, high debt and youth unemployment are compounded by Trump’s tariff threats on $500 billion worth of Chinese goods.
/us-trade deficit with china narrows to lowest since 2010
  • These uncertainties loom over China’s future growth prospects, even as experts predict marginally stable figures.
Iran
  • During Trump’s tenure as president, the US unilaterally withdrew from a 2015 agreement that saw Iran scale back its nuclear programme in exchange for a lifting of international sanctions against its economy.
Pardon some Jan 6 rioters
  • However, Iran hopes that the approaches and policies of the (new) US government will be realistic and based on international law and respect for the interests and desires of the nations of the region.

6.

Enlist some orders signed by Trump after becoming president?

  • In a dramatic inauguration, Donald Trump took immediate action on Day 1, withdrawing from international accords like the WHO and Paris Climate Agreement, while granting pardons to January 6 rioters.
Orders Analysis
US Leaving World Health Organization
  • US President Donald Trump announced on January, 20 that the United States would exit the World Health Organization (WHO), criticizing the global health agency for mishandling the COVID-19 pandemic and other international health crises.
president trump orders us exit from who
  • As reported by Reuters, Trump said the WHO had failed to act independently from the "inappropriate political influence of WHO member states" and required "unfairly onerous payments" from the U.S. that are disproportionate to the sums provided by other, larger countries, such as China.
  • The consequences of this event are significant, especially since the US has been a major financial contributor to the WHO since 1948.
  • The US contributed around 18% of WHO's overall funding.
  • Its most recent two-year budget, for 2024-2025, was $6.8 billion.
January 6 rioters
  • President Trump signed pardons for some of the 1,500 participants in the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol by his supporters trying to overturn the 2020 election.
  • He again referred to those who were convicted or pleaded guilty over the riots as “hostages.”
  • On January 6, 2021, supporters of then-President Donald Trump stormed the US Capitol to prevent Congress from certifying Joe Biden‟s victory in the 2020 presidential election.
Paris Climate Accord
  • On the same day Trump was sworn in as the 47th president of the United States, he withdrew the country from the Paris climate accord, repeating a move from his first term.
  • Leaving the agreement would take a year after submitting a formal notice to the United Nations, which forms the basis of international climate negotiations.
  • The withdrawal of the world’s biggest historic emitter from global efforts to fight climate change will come into force officially after a year of giving a notice.
Paris Climate Accord
  • It came days after the year 2024 was declared the warmest year on record and the first when the average global temperature broke the 1.5 °C threshold over the pre-industrial level.
  • Experts said Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, a multilateral arrangement to keep global warming from reaching dangerous levels, sets a poor precedent for developing countries such as India.
Cuba
  • US President Donald Trump swiftly overturned Joe Biden's decision to remove Cuba from the blacklist of state sponsors of terrorism, a move announced just days earlier as part of a deal to free prisoners.
  • In a statement released shortly after the inauguration, the White House confirmed that Trump had rescinded a series of executive orders, including the one regarding Cuba.
  • Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel lashed out at newly inaugurated U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday for putting the Caribbean nation back on the U.S.' state sponsors of terrorism list, calling it “an act of arrogance and disregard for the truth.”
No More Birthright Citizenship
  • In defiance of the US Constitution's 14th amendment, President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Monday that cracks down on birthright citizenship in the US.
No More Birthright Citizenship
  • "The federal government will not recognize automatic birthright citizenship for children of illegal aliens born in the United States," Trump stated in a statement to the media.
  • Additionally, the plan to screen and vet undocumented immigrants is also under process.
Delay in Tik Tok Ban
  • Within the first few hours of his second term on Monday, Jan. 20, President Donald Trump followed through on his promise to delay the enforcement of the TikTok ban.
  • Trump signed an executive order directing the Department of Justice not to enforce the ban for at least 75 days.
Delay in Tik Tok Ban
  • When signing the order, Trump said the U.S. should broker a deal to own half of TikTok.
  • He estimated it could be worth $1 trillion.
US to Recognize Only Two Genders
  • On his first day back in the White House, President Trump issued an order stating that only male and female will be recognized in the US going forward.
  • Additionally, Trump overturned scores of Biden administration directives that promoted racial justice and fought against prejudice against homosexual and transgender individuals.
there are only two genders male and female
  • The order states that the government must use "sex" rather than "gender" and that all government-issued identification documents, such as passports and visas, must be based on "an individual's immutable biological classification as either male or female."

7.

What does Trump 2.0 mean for India-U.S. relations?

  • Trump’s first term was marked by deepening US-India relations, driven in part by his rapport with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. High-profile events like the 2019 'Howdy Modi' rally in Houston and the 2020 'Namaste Trump' event in Ahmedabad showcased a mutual commitment to stronger ties.
  • Given the close ties between the US and Indian economies, any policy changes in the US could significantly affect diplomatic ties, India's trade flow, global alliances, and capital flows.
Aspects Analysis
Strategic Partnership
  • During Trump‟s first term, the India-US relationship evolved into a multifaceted partnership.
  • In 2016, as a candidate, Trump famously declared his admiration for India, saying, “I am a big fan of Hindus, big fan of India, big, big fan.”
  • Prime Minister Narendra Modi is among the first world leaders to congratulate Trump after his victory.
  • Trump’s second term is expected to bring both continuity and change in global geopolitics.
  • Key figures such as Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz likely to hold significant positions in his administration, there could be a shift toward strengthening partnerships with strategic allies like India.
India-US
  • Marco Rubio, a staunch India supporter and a China hawk, has been advocating for closer defense and technology ties between the US and India.
Bilateral Trade
  • One of the hallmark policies of Trump’s first term was the introduction of trade tariffs aimed at curbing imports and boosting U.S. production.
  • A second term could see an escalation in these protectionist policies, with more aggressive tariffs targeting countries like China, Japan, South Korea, and even India.
  • For export-oriented sectors in India particularly textiles, IT services, and manufacturing this could be a double-edged sword.
  • On one hand, it may strain trade relations with the U.S. and reduce the competitiveness of Indian exports.
  • On the other hand, Indian firms might be able to capture a larger share of the global market as the U.S. shifts its supply chains away from China.
the-us-india-trade-relationship
Personal Bond: From 'Howdy, Modi' to 'Namaste Trump
  • PM Narendra Modi was among the first world leaders to congratulate Donald Trump on a “historic election victory” in the US presidential election.
 Personal Bond-From Howdy Modi  to Namaste Trump
pm-modi tweet at howdymodi
the usa loves india
donald trump tweet
Immigration Policy
  • Donald Trump's first day as the 47th President of the United States was marked by a significant move to reshape the country's immigration landscape.
  • He signed an executive order that targets multiple immigration laws, including the long-standing principle of birthright citizenship.
trump immigration orders
  • The Trump administration has deemed birthright citizenship as "ridiculous" and claims that ending it will curb illegal immigration.
  • India is taking steps to identify and repatriate its citizens living illegally in the US, signalling its willingness to cooperate with the Trump administration in an effort to avoid a trade conflict.
  • According to Bloomberg, sources say that the two countries have identified about 18,000 Indian migrants in the US who will be sent back to India.
  • According to a November, 2023 PTI report, the US has 7,50,000 illegal immigrants from India, the third largest such group after illegal immigrants from Mexico and El Salvador.
number of indian trying to enter the us illegally has risen
  • A Times of India report in December 2024 indicated that 50 per cent of the 90,000 Indians arrested by US immigration in the last two fiscals might be Gujaratis.
Defence ties
  • During Trump’s first term US and India had deepened their defense and strategic relations.
  • The two countries signed the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) during a 2+2 foreign and defense ministers’ meeting in New Delhi.
  • This agreement facilitated the transfer of secure communication equipment, thus enhancing realtime intelligence-sharing and military cooperation.
india us defence ties
  • India also achieved Strategic Trade Authorization (STA-1) status, which simplified high-tech exports from the US to India.
  • Trump 2.0 is further expected to deepen defence ties between both countries.
The Quad
  • Trump’s first term helped in the revival of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) in November 2017, with leaders from India, the US, Japan, and Australia, signaling a shift toward greater strategic cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region.
  • On his first full day in office on January 22, the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio held the first Quad ministerial meeting with Australia, India and Japan and jointly warned against changing the status quo in the Indo-Pacific via coercive actions.
the quad
  • In a joint statement, the four nations restated their "shared commitment to strengthening a Free and Open Indo-Pacific where the rule of law, democratic values, sovereignty, and territorial integrity are upheld and defended."
Energy
  • Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri on January, 21 stressed there is a possibility of more energy exports from the United States heading to India.
  • This comes even as the new Donald Trump administration announced plans to maximise oil and gas production.
  • Trump declared a national energy emergency, which will give him broad powers to reduce environmental restrictions on energy infrastructure and projects.
  • It will ease permits on new transmission and pipeline infrastructure.
  • Trump’s win is being seen as a net positive for India's energy security, and crude oil import scenario by petroleum ministry officials.
Climate change
  • President Donald Trump ordered the US to withdraw from the landmark Paris Agreement, launching another retreat in the global fight against climate change by the world‟s wealthiest nation.
  • Trump’s order removed US financial support for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the decades-old agreement that underpins the Paris pact.
  • The US is the second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases behind top polluter China and has been viewed as offering crucial leadership in the fight to curb planetary warming.
  • It could adversely impact India’s commitment towards net carbon neutrality.
H1-B Visa
  • The H1-B foreign guest workers' visa is an issue that is highly contested within Trump's own support base.
H1-B Visa
  • While some allies like Tesla owner Elon Musk support the programme to bring in qualified professionals, others argue that the influx of foreign workers takes away jobs from American citizens.
  • Indian professionals, who constitute over 70% of H-1B visa holders, are integral to the US tech sector.
  • US President Donald Trump, during a press conference at the White House on Tuesday, said that he likes both sides of the debate on the H-1B foreign guest workers' visa, stating that he welcomed “competent people” coming into the country
Exit from WHO
  • The Donald Trump administration’s decision to pull out from the World Health Organisation can impact some of the Indian programmes unless others come forward to make up for the loss.
  • Public Health experts note that in an interconnected world, the US decision will not only hurt other nations, but will adversely impact the US too.
trump orders us to exit who
  • India‟s health programmes on TB, malaria, HIV, antimicrobial resistance and immunisation are supported by the WHO.
  • Since WHO will lose its major national financial contributor, other countries will need to step up their contributions and increase the level of scientific collaboration amongst themselves.
Indian Share market
  • As US President Donald Trump takes charge as the 47th president of the United States, all eyes are on how the Indian markets will pan out in trade today.
  • Most market experts in India are taking a calibrated approach at the moment and believe that a wait and watch approach is the need of the hour.
Indian Share market
  • Ace Investor, Vijay Kedia does not see Trump taking charge as a big driver for the market at the moment.
  • Deven Choksey, Founder and MD of DRChoksey FinServ says that the Nifty on the downside is well protected at 22800 and the rally to as much as 24800 is possible.

8.

Why is the relationship between PM Modi and Donald Trump so strong?

pm modi and donald trump relationship
Aspects Analysis
Shared strategic interests
  • Both PM Narendra Modi and Donald Trump leaders prioritised strengthening defence and security ties, particularly in countering terrorism and addressing regional threats, such as those posed by Pakistan.
pm modi and president elect trump share a strong bond
  • Their shared vision for a “free and open IndoPacific” led to closer cooperation, especially in relation to China’s growing influence.
  • This aligned vision deepened their collaboration in defence and security matters, including joint military exercises and India’s role in the Quad alliance.
Personal rapport and public displays of friendship
  • Modi and Trump enjoyed a personal bond, demonstrated by their public interactions at large-scale events like "Howdy, Modi!" in 2019 and "Namaste Trump!" in 2020.
Personal rapport and public displays of friendship
  • These events showcased their mutual admiration and helped strengthen the diplomatic relationship between the two leaders.
namaste trump
Economic and trade engagement
  • Despite challenges, such as disagreements over tariffs, both leaders worked toward enhancing economic relations.
  • Trump‟s “America First” policy pushed for fairer trade, while Modi sought to balance India’s interests with the US.
  • This shared focus on improving trade relations, alongside India's growing economic power, helped maintain strong ties between the two countries.
Health initiatives
  • During the Covid-19 pandemic, their partnership extended to health initiatives, with India providing hydroxychloroquine to the US.
  • Later, America supported India’s pandemic response.

9.

What Trump 2.0 could mean for Indian Americans?

indian dispora in the usa
  • As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, the 4.5 million-strong Indian-American community in the US finds itself at a pivotal crossroads.
  • With a reputation for contributing significantly to the economy, technology, medicine, and education, Indian Americans are both keen observers and active participants in the political shifts that could shape their future.
Issues Analysis
Emerging shifts in diaspora politics
  • Historically, Indian-Americans have overwhelmingly supported the Democratic Party, drawn by its progressive stance on immigration, diversity, and social justice.
  • However, Trump’s presidency marked a notable shift, with a big section of the community leaning toward the Republican Party.
  • Economic policies favouring tax cuts and deregulation, coupled with a shared emphasis on traditional values like family and education, have attracted affluent and conservative Indian Americans to the Republican fold.
  • Prominent figures like Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy have further amplified the community‟s visibility within the Republican Party.
Immigration Policies
  • For decades, the H1-B visa programme has been a cornerstone of Indian professionals’ success in America, particularly in fields like technology and healthcare.
  • During Trump’s first term, this vital pipeline faced significant disruptions.
  • Stricter eligibility criteria, heightened scrutiny, and an unpredictable approval process created widespread uncertainty among Indian workers and their families.
  • Under a second Trump administration, these challenges could intensify.
  • Indian workers already stuck in a decades-long Green Card backlog may face additional hurdles.
  • Families relying on H-4 visa work permits, often used by spouses, remain vulnerable, as Trump previously sought to revoke their work authorization.
  • Such changes could disproportionately impact Indian women, many of whom use these permits to contribute to household incomes and professional growth.
Opportunities and risks for entrepreneurs
  • Indian-American entrepreneurs contribute significantly to the economy through businesses ranging from retail to tech startups.
  • Trump’s first term delivered mixed results for this community.
  • While his administration’s tax cuts and deregulation policies boosted businesses, uncertainties around trade and tariffs presented new challenges.
  • A Trump 2.0 presidency may again emphasise deregulation and tax incentives, creating growth opportunities, particularly for small businesses.
  • However, the resurgence of 'America First' policies could pose challenges for IndianAmerican entrepreneurs with global supply chains or business ties to India.
  • For those navigating industries like technology, manufacturing, and retail, maintaining profitability amid potential trade disruptions will require strategic planning.
  • The question for Indian-American business owners is not just how to adapt but how to leverage Trump-era policies to build resilience and expand opportunities.
Community dynamics in a polarised US
  • Trump’s presidency saw a rise in xenophobia and hate crimes, including incidents targeting South Asians.
  • For Indian Americans, its impact cannot be ignored. Many in the community felt marginalised by the broader cultural environment under the 'Make America Great Again' banner, even as Trump courted their support through high-profile events like the 'Howdy Modi' rally in Houston.
  • A second Trump term could amplify these tensions.
  • Advocacy groups and community organisations will likely play an even more significant role in safeguarding the rights and dignity of Indian Americans, pushing back against discriminatory rhetoric and policies.

10.

What are the views of people globally about Trump 2.0?

What are the views of people globally about Trump 2-0
global expectations of trump presidency

11.

What does Trump 2.0 mean for science?

What does Trump 2-0 mean for science
  • As Donald Trump prepares for his second term as president of the United States, two starkly different outlooks are emerging among scientists and engineers.
  • Some technology companies, space enthusiasts, artificial intelligence (AI) developers and others expect favourable policies for their fields in the coming years, and are hugely excited about the possibilities for exploration and innovation.
  • Yet, for countless other scientists and academics including those who work on climate, Earth sciences and biomedicine there is concern that important research will be cut, deprioritized or vilified.
  • During his first stint in the White House, in 2017–21, Trump promoted unproven treatments for COVID-19 and denied the risks of climate change. He also undermined scientists at his own agencies and repeatedly sought to slash funding for science, although Congress shielded federal agencies such as the National Institutes of Health (NIH), National Science Foundation (NSF) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) from the most drastic cuts.
Fields of Science Analysis
AI, Quantum science and technology
  • In Trump’s first term, his science adviser at the time, Kelvin Droegemeier, pushed to support what he called “industries of the future”: AI, quantum information science (QIS), advanced manufacturing, advanced communications and biotechnology.
  • Policy specialists expect these sectors to get continued attention in Trump’s second term.
  • In 2018, Congress and the Trump administration created the National Quantum Initiative.
  • Trump has been critical of Biden’s bipartisan 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, which authorized billions of dollars to boost US semiconductor manufacturing, saying that imposing tariffs on commercial rivals in China could achieve the same goal for free.
Space exploration
  • Space exploration is another likely winner, as space billionaires try to convince Congress to spend more on human space flight.
  • NASA’s biggest priority now is its Artemis programme to send astronauts to the Moon.
  • For that effort, it built a new heavy-lift rocket, the Space Launch System (SLS), and a crew capsule named Orion.
  • The Trump administration could try to sway Congress to cancel the government rocket programme and instead use launch vehicles developed by private companies including SpaceX in Hawthorne, which is run by Elon Musk.
  • Trump’s choice for NASA administrator, the billionaire private astronaut Jared Isaacman, might also advocate for major changes.
Climate Change
  • Climate and environment are areas in which scientists are bracing for the worst.
  • In a repeat of his first term, Trump is expected to roll back or loosen regulations on toxic chemicals, greenhouse gases and other types of pollution.
  • Efforts to cut costs and staff are likely to hit the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) particularly hard, but environmental research programmes at other agencies, such as NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, could also be targets for cuts.
  • Trump‟s nominee to lead the EPA, congressman Lee Zeldin of New York, is a long-time supporter of Trump and has a mixed record on supporting EPA budgets and initiatives.

12.

What does Trump 2.0 mean for the United Nations?

What does Trump 2-0 mean for science
  • Donald Trump has returned as president of the United States.
  • Unlike his previous term, when there was considerable uncertainty about his views and policies toward the United Nations, there is now a record of past practice to predict future policy.
  • When people recall President Trump‟s previous interactions with the UN, they characterize it as a contentious relationship.
  • His first budget proposal included large funding cuts for the UN and international organizations – reductions that Congress largely rebuffed.
percentage of un agency income from us compared to other donor governments in 2023
dependence on us funding across sectors
  • In late 2017, the White House announced Washington’s intent to withdraw from the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), citing an anti-Israel bias.
  • The Trump administration suspended all funding for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), calling the organization “irredeemably flawed.”
  • Trump opined that The United Nations is an underperformer, but it has huge potential.
  • While many saw President Trump’s approach calling for reform or withdrawal from contentious organizations as a dramatic break in U.S. policy, it in fact followed precedent previously established by both Democratic and Republican administrations.
  • The main difference between President Trump and his predecessors is his appetite for confrontation.
  • While previous U.S. administrations were willing to challenge the UN and other international organizations and use American financial and diplomatic clout to press for change, they focused on one or two organizations or issues at a time.

13.

What are Donald Trump’s views on the Panama Canal?

  • US President Donald Trump once again showed his determination to take control of the Panama Canal in his presidency as he vowed the same in his inaugural speech on January 20.
  • Despite the constant clarification by the Panama government that there is no Chinese interference in its operation, Trump claimed that "China is operating the Panama Canal".
What are Donald Trumps views on the Panama Canal
Panama Canal
trump claims canal in us strategic shift
What is the U.S.-Panama treaty?
  • The Panama canal is an artificial 80-kilometre canal connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, reducing cost, time and distance for international shipping.
  • The canal is crucial for the global supply chain, and 6% of maritime world trade goes through it.
  • The canal also symbolises U.S.’s technological prowess and economic power.
  • It opened in 1914 after the U.S. finished construction, and was controlled by the U.S. until December 31, 1999.
  • The canal was handed over to Panama in 1999 under the Torrijos-Carter Treaties.
  • The first, called the Panama Canal Treaty, cancelled the Panama Canal Zone and turned the canal over to the Panamanians on December 31, 1999.
  • Under the second, the Permanent Neutrality Treaty, the canal was declared neutral and open to vessels of all nations.
  • Under this treaty, the U.S. has the right to defend the neutrality of the canal and have priority passage in military emergencies.
What is the US-Panama treaty
Why did the United States give away the Panama Canal?
  • Since the canal opened, control over it has been a point of contention between Panama and the United States, highlighted by riots in the canal zone in 1964.
  • In the 1970s, presidential candidate Jimmy Carter initially opposed a treaty regarding the canal.
  • The Torrijos-Carter Treaties were signed, which granted the USA the authority to militarily defend the Panama Canal against any threats to its neutrality.
  • Additionally, the Panama Canal Zone was set to cease to exist on October 1, 1979, with the canal itself scheduled to be turned over to the Panamanians on December 31, 1999.
significance of the panama canal
Who owns the Panama Canal?
  • The Panama Canal, a vital waterway connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, has been under the ownership and operation of the Panamanian government since December 31, 1999.
  • It is managed by the Panama Canal Authority (PCA), an autonomous government entity responsible for its operations, maintenance, and modernisation.
  • The canal’s history traces back to US involvement in its construction, which began in 1904 following Panama‟s independence from Colombia, a movement supported by the United States.
  • The canal opened in 1914 and revolutionised global shipping by offering a shortcut between oceans, saving ships approximately 7,000 miles of travel around South America’s Cape Horn.
Why does Trump want the Panama Canal back?
  • Trump’s interest in the Panama Canal isn’t new.
  • He has previously expressed dissatisfaction with the 1977 treaties, claiming that the United States “foolishly” gave the canal away.
  • In his 2025 inaugural address, he argued that “Panama’s promise to us has been broken” and alleged that China is operating the Panama Canal.
  • While the canal remains under Panamanian control, Chinese investments in Panama have grown, including a Hong Kong-based consortium’s operation of ports at either end of the canal since 1997.
  • Trump’s remarks reflect broader concerns about China’s influence in the region.
Why does Trump want the Panama Canal back
What can the US do to reclaim the Panama Canal?
  • Experts agree that the United States has limited options for reclaiming control of the canal.
  • The 1977 treaties do not provide any legal pathway for the US to retake ownership, except in cases where the canal’s operation is threatened by military conflict.
  • Former canal administrator Jorge Luis Quijano stated that “there’s no clause of any kind in the neutrality agreement that allows for the taking back of the canal.”
  • One viable approach for the US is to increase economic engagement with Panama.
  • Trump could leverage his administration’s tools to boost US investment in Panama‟s tech and maritime sectors, as well as construction projects linked to canal operations.
  • Panama‟s current government, led by President José Raúl Mulino, appears open to closer cooperation with the United States.
  • Mulino, who assumed office in July 2024, has expressed concerns about excessive Chinese investment and has called for more US involvement in Panama‟s development.
republicans against trump
What is the future of the Panama Canal?
  • The Panama Canal has long been a symbol of US engineering prowess and geopolitical influence.
  • Former US President Theodore Roosevelt once called it “one of the feats to which the people of this republic will look back with the highest pride.”
  • It continues to serve as a critical conduit for global trade, particularly for US businesses relying on efficient supply chains.
  • While Trump’s rhetoric may appeal to nationalist sentiments, any move to reclaim the Panama Canal would face significant legal, diplomatic, and logistical hurdles.
panama canal traffic
daily transit trade volume

14.

What is Donald Trump’s view on Greenland?

  • U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States needs to control Greenland to ensure international security.
  • Trump made the comments while signing executive orders in the Oval Office of the White House on the first day of his second term as president.
  • Trump has expressed interest in making Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, a part of the U.S. since his reelection in November.
What is Donald Trumps view on Greenland
What is Greenland?
  • Greenland is an autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark.
  • It is the larger of two autonomous territories within the kingdom, the other being the Faroe Islands.
  • The citizens of both territories are full citizens of Denmark.
  • As Greenland is one of the Overseas Countries and Territories of the European Union, citizens of Greenland are European Union citizens.
  • The capital and largest city of Greenland is Nuuk.
What is Greenland
What is Greenland
Why does Trump want Greenland?
  • Greenland is seen as key for US security, especially to repel a potential attack from Russia, said Ulrik Pram Gad, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies.
  • The Northwest Passage shipping lane runs along its coast and the island is part of the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom gap, a strategic maritime region.
  • Greenland, part of NATO through the membership of Denmark, has strategic significance for the U.S. military and for its ballistic missile early-warning system.
  • The U.S. military maintains a permanent presence at the Pituffik air base in Greenland's northwest.
  • The island, whose capital Nuuk is closer to New York than the Danish capital Copenhagen, boasts mineral, oil and natural gas wealth, but development has been slow.
prime real estate
countries content control of the arctic ocean
Who owns Greenland and could Trump buy it?
  • Greenland has been part of Denmark for more than 600 years but now controls most of its own domestic affairs as a semi-sovereign territory under the Danish realm.
  • It became a formal territory of Denmark in 1953 and is subject to the Danish constitution, meaning any change to its legal status would require a constitutional amendment.
  • In 2009, the island was granted broad selfgoverning autonomy, including the right to declare independence from Denmark through a referendum.
  • Greenland Prime Minister Mute Egede, who has stepped up a push for independence, has repeatedly said the island is not for sale and that it is up to its people to decide their future.
  • In 2019 both Greenland and Denmark rejected Trump's offer to buy the island.
  • When Greenland was still a colony, the U.S. under then-President Harry Truman sought to buy the island as a strategic asset during the Cold War for $100 million in gold, but Copenhagen declined to sell.
What if Greenland becomes independent?
  • If Greenland becomes independent, it could choose to become associated with the United States.
  • While the majority of Greenlanders want independence, few see full independence as viable given their economic dependence on Denmark, which is part of the affluent European Union.
  • One option could be to form a so-called "free association" pact with the United States, similar to the status of Pacific island nations Marshall Islands, Micronesia and Palau.
  • "Greenland is talking about becoming independent from Denmark, but no Greenlanders want to just switch to a new colonial master," said Ulrik Pram Gad, a senior researcher and expert on Greenland.
  • He finds it unlikely Greenland will vote for independence without ensuring the welfare of its population.
What does Greenland want?
  • A majority of Greenland's inhabitants support independence, but are divided over the timing and potential impact on living standards.
  • Greenlandic politicians have since 2019 repeatedly said they are interested in strengthening cooperation and trade with the United States.
What does Denmark say?
  • The renewed interest comes amid heightened tensions between Greenland and Denmark, following revelations of historical misconduct by the former colonial ruler.
  • Trump's 2019 offer to buy the island was firmly rejected by Denmark, a close NATO ally of the United States, and labelled as "absurd" by Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen

What is the relevance of the topic for UPSC CSE?

For Prelims: India-US Relations, LEMOA, COMCASA, BECA, Silicon Valley, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Exercise Malabar, NISAR mission, NASA's Deep Space Network, Chandrayaan-3, Digital services tax, CAATSA, USIndia initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology.

For Mains: Significance of the United States for India, Key Issues in India-US Relations.

Some Previous Years Prelims Questions

Q1. What is “Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)”, sometimes seen in the news? (2018)

(a) An Israeli radar system

(b) India‟s indigenous anti-missile programme

(c) An American anti-missile system

(d) A defence collaboration between Japan and South Korea

Ans: (c)

Some Previous Years Mains Questions

Q1. 'What introduces friction into the ties between India and the United States is that Washington is still unable to find for India a position in its global strategy, which would satisfy India‟s National self-esteem and ambitions'. Explain with suitable examples. [2019]

Some Questions from This Year and Previous Years Interview Transcripts

Board Sheel Vardhan Singh sir:

  • You are interested in Geopolitics.
  • I am a magician.
  • I turn you into President Zelenskyy and those sitting beside you are Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin.
  • How would you negotiate?

Board B.B. Swain sir:

  • Why does Trump want Greenland?
  • Which resources are found there?
  • Why so much chaos in geopolitics?

Board Suman Sharma mam:

  • Tell me something about global world order
  • Differentiate early World order vs present World order?
  • Tell me something about Trump's impact on World order?

Board Lt general Raj shukla sir:

  • Many millionaires are coming in the Trump administration?
  • Is it good ?

Board Lt general Raj shukla sir:

  • How is Trump good for Indian interests?
  • Wouldn't such sanctions affect Indian exports?

Some Questions for QUIZ

Q1. Consider the following Countries:

1. United Nations

2. India

3. Israel

4. Saudi Arabia

5. Jordan

How many of the above countries are part of the IMEC?

(a) Only two

(b) Only three

(c) Only four

(d) All five

Ans: (c)

Some Questions for POLL

Q1. Do you think that under the Trump regime India-US relations will flourish?

(a) YES

(b) NO

(c) Can’t say

Q2. Will Trump economic policies impact India adversely?

(a) YES

(b) NO

(c) Can’t say